• Futures-based Analyst believes that a Bitcoin ETF has a ’75 percent chance of approval’ in October

  • This month, a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) has a 75% chance of being approved in some form.

    Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst, stated this weekend that US Bitcoin futures ETFs were “likely on schedule” for regulatory approval.

    Bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are “very much alive.”

    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began October by announcing a frustrating, but not unusual, delay in their decision on whether or not to approve Bitcoin ETFs.

    Instead of being approved or denied this month, the various applications will now be processed in November.

    Futures-based ETFs, on the other hand, are more likely than not to pass muster in the coming weeks, according to Balchunas.

    “Yes, the SEC has slammed the door on bitcoin ETF approval, but only for physically-backed ones under the ’33 Act,” he told Twitter followers.

    “The futures ETFs filed under the ’40 Act (which Genz adores) are very much alive and likely on schedule (we believe they have a 75% chance of being approved in October.”

    Balchunas referred to SEC chair Garry Gensler, who hinted at a lenient stance on the instruments last week.

    “As a result, we’ve begun to see filings under the Investment Company Act with regard to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeking to invest in CME-traded bitcoin futures,” he said at the Future of Asset Management North America Conference.

    “When combined with other federal securities laws, the ’40 Act provides significant investor protections for mutual funds and ETFs.” I eagerly await the review of such filings by staff.”

    Canada’s Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which was approved at the start of the year, outperformed the US offerings, is doing well.

    ETFs have a long and winding road ahead of them.

    The history of Bitcoin ETFs has now spanned several years, with numerous make-or-break moments when supporters were almost certain that the SEC would grant its approval.

    Initially, BTC price action could move significantly on the back of rumors related to such events, but this effect has waned over time.

    Bitcoin futures were officially approved in December 2017, just in time for the final few days of Bitcoin’s run-up to all-time highs of $20,000.

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