According to blockchain data, there are now 40 million addresses that hold one sat or more, an all-time high as bitcoin continues to become one of the most distributed assets.
There are 20.2 million addresses that can hold up to 0.001 bitcoin, which is approximately $50. This is twice as many as in 2019 and six million more than in January 2018.
Almost ten million addresses now store up to 0.01 bitcoin, which is worth $500. This is a 30% increase over 2020, when approximately seven million addresses had this much bitcoin when we covered it, and a doubling over both 2018 and 2019.
Following that, there isn’t much of a difference, with six million addresses holding up to $5,000 in bitcoin. This is a one million increase over last year and a 1.5 million increase over 2018.
It’s unclear whether we can draw any conclusions from this comparative data. Not to mention the caveats: one address can represent many people, and one person can represent many addresses.
However, one thing we can say is that there has been growth, and fairly significant growth, which can be used to estimate what bitcoin’s current floor is, which could be around $40,000 but not including the halvening.
It would be more shaky to claim that retail is on top. That’s because lower addresses have grown much faster than higher ones, but big money is unlikely to get involved in the business of dealing with private keys, unless it’s as a service.
They simply purchase some euro or Canadian Exchange Traded Products (ETPs), or, like Morgan Stanley, they purchase Grayscale bitcoin shares.
Those 10,000 addresses are most likely Coinbase addresses. They’ve risen by about 500 percent since 2018, or 500,000 bitcoin, totaling $27 billion. Since 2019, it has risen by about 200 percent, and by 50 percent since 2020. The latter is worth $2.7 billion.
So, as you go higher, the numbers move in smaller increments, but this translates to large bitcoin movements. 100,000 new addresses, each worth up to ten bitcoins, have been added. This equates to 300,000 BTC.
As a result, bitcoin’s price increases are due to widespread adoption. It’s difficult to say how much, but the lowest address is probably difficult to forge because it’s mostly a product of change left in the account.
Some of that dust has become valuable over time, so based on imperfect data, we’d estimate a 50% increase in onchain adoption since four years ago.
If the 2020 halvening is taken into account, bitcoin is likely to be within a reasonable price range of the current high $50,000s to $60,000s. If we factor in the next halving and the possibility of increased adoption, it may be undervalued.
That’s because we could be close to the bottom, but only the market can tell us for sure.